Geothermal heating spans direct-use resources, district systems and ground-source heat pumps. The figures below distinguish observed reporting, estimates, modeled examples and forecasts, with geography and measurement periods stated explicitly.
Key Geothermal Heating Statistics
The most broadly useful figures are:
- In 2019, worldwide geothermal direct-use capacity reached an estimated 107,727 MWt across reported countries and regions.
- In 2019, worldwide geothermal direct-use energy use reached an estimated 1,020,887 TJ per year.
- Between the 2015 and 2019 reviews, worldwide direct-use capacity increased 52.0%.
- Between 2015 and 2019, worldwide direct-use annual energy use increased 72.3%.
- In 2019, ground-source heat pumps represented an estimated 77,547 MWt, or 71.6% of worldwide direct-use capacity.
- In 2019, ground-source heat pumps delivered an estimated 599,981 TJ per year, or 59.2% of worldwide direct-use energy use.
- The estimated global ground-source heat-pump stock reached about 6.46 million units in 2019.
- Countries reporting ground-source heat-pump installations increased from 26 in 2000 to 54 in 2020.
- In 2019, geothermal space heating had an estimated 12,768 MWt of worldwide installed capacity.
- In 2019, geothermal space heating used an estimated 162,979 TJ per year worldwide.
- In 2019, district heating accounted for an estimated 91% of worldwide geothermal space-heating capacity.
- U.S. manufacturers shipped 41,679 geothermal heat pumps in 1999, according to the EIA shipment survey.
- Across six selected U.S. DOE-supported case studies, geothermal heat pumps saved 33% to 65% of energy versus baseline HVAC systems.
- DOE guidance says geothermal heat pumps can reduce energy consumption 25% to 50% compared with air-source heat pumps.
- DOE’s 2021 consumer guide gives geothermal heat-pump equipment an average service-life expectation of more than 20 years.
- DOE’s 2021 guide illustrates geothermal equipment at about $2,500 per ton of capacity, excluding installation and drilling.
- DOE’s 2025 U.S. pathway identifies $100 billion to $150 billion of near-term investment opportunity by 2035.
- That pathway links the investment to geothermal heat-pump service equivalent to 7 million U.S. homes by 2035.
Contents
- Global geothermal direct-use scale
- Ground-source heat-pump adoption and leaders
- Geothermal space and district heating data
- U.S. geothermal heat-pump shipment statistics
- Efficiency, service life and measured outcomes
- Geothermal heating costs and lifecycle economics
- U.S. deployment outlook and grid effects
Global Geothermal Direct-Use Scale
The 2020 Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2020 Worldwide Review recorded direct-use installations in 88 countries or regions through 2019. Its worldwide totals combine World Geothermal Congress updates with supplemental sources, so the totals are estimates assembled from country submissions rather than a single census. Source: Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2020 Worldwide Review
| Measure | 2019 worldwide figure | Comparison or definition |
|---|---|---|
| Installed direct-use thermal capacity | 107,727 MWt | Estimated total at end-2019 |
| Annual direct-use energy use | 1,020,887 TJ/year; 283,580 GWh/year | Estimated reported or inferred use |
| Capacity growth | 52.0% | Increase versus the 2015 review |
| Annual-use growth | 72.3% | Increase versus the 2015 review |
| Capacity factor | 0.300 | Equivalent to 2,628 full-load hours/year |
The review reported an 11.5% compound annual growth rate for direct-use energy use across the 2015–2019 comparison. The worldwide capacity factor also rose from 0.265 in 2015 to 0.300 in 2019, although the capacity-factor measure covers every direct-use category, not only space heating.
Ground-Source Heat-Pump Adoption and Leaders
Ground-source heat pumps were the largest direct-use category in the 2019 review. Their estimated 77,547 MWt represented 71.6% of worldwide direct-use installed capacity, while estimated annual delivery of 599,981 TJ represented 59.2% of direct-use energy use.
The heat-pump energy total is partly inferred from capacity and assumed performance where country data were incomplete. The review estimated a 2019 heat-pump capacity factor of 0.245, so capacity and annual energy should not be read as interchangeable measures.
- The review estimated approximately 6.46 million installed ground-source heat-pump units worldwide in 2019, using a typical 12 kW unit for the global capacity estimate.
- The estimated unit count was 54% higher than in the 2015 review, while installed capacity grew 1.54 times at a reported 9.06% compound annual rate.
- Countries reporting ground-source heat-pump installations increased from 26 in 2000 to 54 in 2020; this reflects reporting coverage as well as deployment.
- China, the United States, Sweden, Germany and Finland together accounted for 83.5% of reported annual heat-pump energy output in 2019.
These figures come from the worldwide review, which distinguishes heat pumps from other direct-use categories and notes that inferred output is used where reporting is incomplete. Source: Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2020 Worldwide Review
Geothermal Space and District Heating Data
Worldwide geothermal space heating, including individual and district systems, reached an estimated 12,768 MWt of installed capacity in 2019 and used 162,979 TJ per year. The review says individual and district systems were difficult to separate consistently in some country reports.
| Category or measure | 2019 figure | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Space-heating capacity | 12,768 MWt | Individual and district systems worldwide |
| Space-heating annual use | 162,979 TJ/year | Individual and district systems worldwide |
| Space-heating capacity change | 68.0% higher | Versus the 2015 review |
| Space-heating annual-use change | 83.8% higher | Versus the 2015 review |
| District-heating capacity share | 91% | Of worldwide space-heating capacity |
| Countries reporting district heating | 29 | 2019 reporting count |
District heating represented an estimated 59% of worldwide geothermal direct-use annual energy use in 2019; that denominator is all direct-use energy, not only space heating. Geothermal greenhouse heating added an estimated 2,459 MWt and 35,826 TJ per year, reported by 32 countries, although greenhouse and uncovered-ground heating were not consistently separated.
The space-heating and greenhouse figures therefore describe broad thermal-use categories, with reporting and classification limitations. Source: Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2020 Worldwide Review
U.S. Geothermal Heat-Pump Shipment Statistics
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Form EIA-902 survey measures manufacturer shipments, not completed installations. It also has no survey observation for 2001, so the sequence below is not a continuous annual installation series.
| Year | U.S. geothermal heat pumps shipped |
|---|---|
| 1997 | 37,434 |
| 1999 | 41,679 |
| 2000 | 35,581 |
| 2002 | 37,139 |
| 2003 | 36,439 |
In 2003, total rated shipment capacity was 124,438 tons, compared with 125,297 tons in 2002; one rated ton equals 12,000 Btu per hour. EIA reported that 2003 unit shipments were 2% below 2002.
Regional and channel data show where surveyed shipments went, not where systems were ultimately installed:
- The South received 34% of reported 2003 shipments and the Midwest Census region received 33%; the separately reported exported share was 8%.
- Wholesale distributors received 44% of 2003 shipments and installers received 30%.
Source: Survey of Geothermal Heat Pump Shipments
Efficiency, Service Life and Measured Outcomes
DOE’s 2021 consumer guide describes technology-level performance rather than a monitored national average. It reports geothermal heat-pump efficiencies of 300% to 600% on the coldest winter nights, and says the systems move 3 to 5 units of energy for each unit of electricity consumed.
The same guide estimates energy consumption can be 25% to 50% lower than with air-source heat pumps. It gives an average service-life expectation of more than 20 years for the heat-pump equipment and 25 to 50 years for underground geothermal infrastructure; actual life depends on design, materials, soil and maintenance.
Six DOE-supported U.S. case studies from a 2009 project cohort, reported in 2015, measured 33% to 65% energy savings versus baseline HVAC systems. The same selected projects reported 25% to 65% CO2 reductions, depending on the baseline and electricity emissions factor.
An ORNL best-case scenario for replacing existing U.S. single-family-home systems with state-of-the-art geothermal systems estimated more than 270 million metric tons of annual CO2 reduction, or a 45.3% reduction. DOE labels that a full-replacement scenario, not observed national adoption.
Source: Consumer Guide to Geothermal Heat Pumps Source: Making a Difference: Geothermal Heat Pumps
Geothermal Heating Costs and Lifecycle Economics
DOE’s consumer guide gives an illustrative equipment cost of about $2,500 per ton of geothermal capacity. For a 3-ton home system, that implies about $7,500 for equipment before installation and drilling; the guide illustrates a comparable air-source heat-pump system with air conditioning at about $4,000.
The guide says additional geothermal installation cost can be recovered through energy savings in about 5 to 10 years, but payback varies with climate, utility rates, building load, loop cost and incentives. These are illustrations, not a market-wide price survey.
DOE FEMP’s 2024 guidance provides modeled regional examples rather than a household survey:
| Representative case | Annual use or cost | 15-year modeled result |
|---|---|---|
| El Dorado, Arkansas, Southeast | 8,117 kWh; $893/year | $14,250 lifetime energy cost for ENERGY STAR model; $2,162 saving versus less-efficient model |
| Albany, New York, Northern | 6,030 kWh/year | $1,666 lifetime saving versus less-efficient model |
The Southeast example assumes a 36,000 Btu/h unit, 11 cents per kWh and specified operating hours. The Northern example assumes 524 cooling hours, 1,681 heating hours, 11 cents per kWh and a 3% discount rate; both modeled results use assumed prices and rounded values.
Source: Consumer Guide to Geothermal Heat Pumps Source: Purchasing Energy-Efficient Geothermal Heat Pumps
U.S. Deployment Outlook and Grid Effects
DOE’s 2025 Geothermal Heating and Cooling Liftoff pathway identifies $100 billion to $150 billion of near-term U.S. investment opportunity by 2035. It links that investment to geothermal heat-pump service equivalent to 7 million U.S. homes by 2035, described as roughly tripling current U.S. geothermal heat-pump capacity.
Those are modeled service and capacity measures, not completed installation counts. The pathway also says that maintaining approximately 10% annual growth could produce service equivalent to 36 million U.S. homes in 2050, conditional on sustained growth and enabling policy and workforce changes.
The same DOE analysis estimates that mass deployment could reduce U.S. electricity demand by up to 13% in 2050 relative to decarbonizing without geothermal heat pumps, and could avoid as much as 43,500 miles of new transmission lines. Both outcomes are scenario-based infrastructure estimates, not measured demand or completed transmission projects.
DOE says federal tax incentives of 30% or greater, together with energy and utility savings, can help offset upfront costs, although eligibility and realized savings vary by technology, taxpayer, utility and program rules. Separately, the 2019 GeoVision pathway identified potential for geothermal heat pumps to provide heating and cooling to 28 million U.S. households and for up to 17,500 geothermal district-heating installations by 2050; these are potential estimates, not completed deployment.
Source: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY RELEASES NEW REPORTS HIGHLIGHTING BENEFITS OF CONSUMER-CENTRIC SOLUTIONS FOR HOUSEHOLDS, BUSINESSES, AND UTILITIES Source: GeoVision | Department of Energy